Till 2030 the annual volume of shale gas production from Oleska area could reach 2.8 billion cubic meters under pessimistic scenario, 5.6 billion cubic meters under baseline scenario and 11.1 billion cubic meters under optimistic scenario according to the forecast prepared by analysts of “Shale gas in Ukraine” project.
To reach such production volumes about 1000 wells should be drilled and around 200 well pads with the area from 1 to 3 hectares each should be constructed.
The forecast is based on the assumption that geological exploration works will be successful and commercial deposits of shale gas will be confirmed. As a result, commercial shale gas extraction and ambitious well drilling activities will commence in 2019. Drilling rate will increase from 8 wells per year in 2019 to 128 wells per year in 2023 and further.
The estimation of potential extraction volumes is built upon the shale gas production experience from main shale gas plays in United States and different scenarios for initial production of shale gas wells. Each well during assumed 7 years exploitation period will produce from 22 to 88 million cubic meters of natural gas. About half of all shale gas produced by each well will be extracted during the first year of its operation with declining production rate thereafter, which will constitute to only about 10% of initial production at the end of 7th year.
Detailed description of the assumptions used for the forecast is available in Ukrainian.